NFL 2022 QB Gravitron: What advanced metrics say about Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes a

It’s understandable to still be suffering from dizziness and nausea after taking a wild ride through the NFL quarterback Gravitron these past few weeks.
Some teams enjoyed the ride with confidence in their current situation. Some teams looked steady on the surface, while gripping vigorously hoping their convictions are correct. Some tried pushing themselves off the backboard only to be sucked back by the gravitational pull. Some spun themselves upside down not knowing how to leave the ride or how they even arrived. And some rushed for the bucket next to the exit.
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More than a handful of NFL owners, general managers and coaches spent a few days this week at the league owners’ meetings in Palm Beach, Fla., trying to explain their decisions at quarterback. Whether to believe what they said is up to each fan, but I figured why not let the numbers from the last few seasons help shape our opinions.
I examined each projected starting quarterback, as of now, using some non-traditional metrics:
- Offensive Total Expected Points Added per play from 2018 through ’21 (via TruMedia)
- IQR, Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary QB metric, which builds on the traditional passer rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control, such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.
For context, there were 93 individual seasons of 100.0 IQR or better among 250 individual qualified seasons from the past six years. There were 66 individual seasons of 105.0 or higher in the same time span. A 0.10 EPA rate was the four-year league average among 175 individual qualified seasons.
Some of these stats show clear upward trajectories, while others show even clearer regressions. And, of course, there are those quarterbacks who simply are they are, for better or worse.
AFC East
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.11 (19) | 114.6 (2020) | 100.2 | |
0.07 (31) | 93.7 (2021) | 93.7 | |
-0.01 (49) | 91.5 (2021) | 91.5 | |
-0.18 (74) | 72.5 (2021) | 72.5 |
Bills
It’s obvious Josh Allen is the class of the AFC East at quarterback, and in the conversation of top five quarterbacks in the league. But it might be a little surprising to find some of Allen’s numbers outside that elite category. His 2021 EPA (0.11) ranked 11th, and his IQR ranked 12th. Part of that comes with his lower completion percentage (63.3) and higher interception total (15) than those above him. The IQR doesn’t measure his production with his legs, though, which is obviously elite for a quarterback.
Mac Jones ranked 20th in IQR during his rookie season, just above the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and his 2021 EPA ranked 16th, so the former Alabama standout finished around the middle of the pack. Does that make him a middle-of-the-pack quarterback in the NFL heading into 2022? Debatable. But it appears Jones is on the right track, which isn’t the norm from the passers in his 2021 draft class.
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Two years in and skeptics of Tua Tagovailoa rightfully exist. His 2021 0.01 EPA is slightly below the 2021 league average of 0.04, though his IQR did jump from his rookie season, as Tagovailoa compiled a 91.5 IQR in 2021, up from 83.2 in 2020. Not great, but improving. Plus, help for Tagovailoa is on the way with All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead heading to Miami. Teddy Bridgewater is lurking if Tua can’t cut it.
It’s hard to get past just how rough Zach Wilson’s rookie season was in 2021. The only quarterbacks with a worst EPA among the 81 qualified passers over the past four years are Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, P.J. Walker, Josh Rosen, Jake Luton, Ryan Finley and Nathan Peterman. The only passers with worse 2021 IQRs were Mike White, Cam Newton and Glennon. You would think Wilson’s second season can’t get much worse than 2021. Right?
AFC North
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.09 (22) | 113.5 (2021) | 113.5 | |
0.14 (11) | 125.4 (2019) | 93.7 | |
0.08 (24) | 95.2 (2018) | 87.4 (2020) | |
0.18 (4) | 117.5 (2020) | 117.5 (2020) | |
0.07 (33) | 105.9 (2020) | 84 |
Joe Burrow might still be bumming from losing Super Bowl LVI, yet he should take pride in the fact that he improved greatly from Year 1 to Year 2. His 2021 0.14 EPA ranked eighth in the league, and his 113.5 IQR ranked second behind only Aaron Rodgers. Then the Bengals aggressively improved the offensive line this offseason, landing tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa and center Ted Karras. Burrow might not have to run for his life anymore.
Ravens
Jackson is still waiting for a new deal entering the fifth and final year of his rookie contract, but there’s no denying he’s a unique, dynamic player. That said, his EPA has been in a freefall the past three years: 0.34 in 2019 (No. 3 overall in the last four seasons), 0.11 in 2020, then 0.03 in 2021. The same is true with Jackson’s IQR the past three years: 125.4 in 2019 (second-best overall in the last four seasons), 104.4 in 2020, 93.7 in 2021. Somewhere in the middle of those last three seasons would be very good for Jackson.
The Steelers aren’t fooling anyone into thinking Mitch Trubisky is their cemented franchise quarterback. Will it be the Trubisky from 2018, when he had a 0.20 EPA (No. 31 of 175 overall the past four seasons), walking through the door? Even if a Trubisky-guided offense produced half that EPA, it would be markedly better than Ben Roethlisberger’s final two seasons: 0.06 EPA in 2020, minus-0.07 in 2021. Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett or Matt Corral should still be in play for Pittsburgh in the draft.
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We realize by now that some teams will risk the public relations hit for a player if he’s talented enough. That’s why a handful of teams pursued Deshaun Watson, and why the Browns paid a heavy price in assets and money (and reputation?) to acquire Watson. He is an elite quarterback, though. His EPA during his last three active seasons prove that: 0.15 in 2018, 0.18 in ’19 and 0.20 in ’20. Meanwhile, Watson’s 2020 IQR of 117.5 over the past four seasons ranks eighth overall among qualified passers.
So where does that leave Baker Mayfield? He’s no doubt wondering the same thing. Mayfield produced his best IQR in 2020 at 105.9, which still ranked only 18th in the league that season. By comparison, Mayfield’s IQRs in 2019 and 2021 were only 85.1 and 84.0, respectively. Similarly, Mayfield’s best EPA came in 2020 at 0.17, ranking 10th. His EPAs in 2019 and 2021 were 0.02 and minus-0.02, respectively.
AFC South
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.09 (67) | 77.1 (2021) | 77.1 | |
-0.08 (64) | 86.7 (2021) | 86.7 | |
0.12 (18) | 122.8 (2016) | 92.1 | |
0.13 (16) | 121.8 (2019) | 88.6 |
Trevor Lawrence’s traditional completion percentage (59.6), touchdown to interception margin (12 to 17) and IQR screamed disaster in his rookie season. But at least his “on-target” percentage of 74.4 percent was the same as the Rams’ Matthew Stafford. And Lawrence’s 83.8 percent “catchable” rate topped Stafford, Tom Brady, Allen and Russell Wilson. For Jaguars fans, there’s a least some glimmer of hope with Lawrence for Year 2, especially without Urban Meyer as head coach.
Speaking of hope, how much should Texans fans have if/when Houston rolls with Davis Mills? Well, in his rookie season in 2021, his completion percentage (66.8), TD to INT margin (16 to 10) and IQR were far better than Lawrence’s, and his “catchable” percentage was the same as Patrick Mahomes’ rate at 84.6. Mills’ “on-target” rate (77.2) topped the likes of Mahomes, Mac Jones, Allen, Brady, Wilson and Stafford. All of those numbers still didn’t help the Texans’ offense a lot given Mills’ poor EPA rate last season.
Is Matt Ryan the division’s best quarterback after being traded to the Colts? The 2021 IQR rate points to yes. Last year’s EPA rate for Ryan would say not so much. He ranked 29th in 2021 with a minus-0.02 rate. Ryan’s rate fell off the map from the previous season, when he yielded a 0.14. Was the drastic dip more because of Ryan’s play or the lack of viable weapons in Atlanta? Ryan ranked seventh in “on-target” rate and fifth in “catchable” rate, so I’d point more to the latter for Ryan.
Ryan Tannehill’s poor play in the Titans’ AFC divisional playoff loss to the Bengals probably still burns within the brains of Titans fans, especially after he had a few too many similar games in the regular season. That’s why Tannehill’s 2021 IQR was his lowest in his past six seasons. His IQR rates from the last three seasons were: 121.8 in 2019 (fourth-best overall in the last three seasons), 107.5 in 2020 and 88.6 in 2021. Maybe a healthy Derrick Henry will take heat off Tannehill, and the addition of wideout Robert Woods might help as well.
AFC West
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.10 (20) | 111.8 (2019) | 98.7 | |
0.17 (7) | 107.8 (2021) | 107.8 | |
0.26 (2) | 121.6 (2018) | 102.7 | |
0.13 (17) | 122.6 (2019) | 105.4 |
You could point to plenty of reasons why Derek Carr’s ERA and IQR numbers dipped last season: Jon Gruden’s firing, Henry Ruggs’ release, the offensive line’s sluggish pass protection. Regardless, Carr’s IQR rate has fallen in the past few seasons, from 111.8 in 2019 to 111.1 in 2020 to 98.7 in 2021. Carr also threw a career-high 14 picks last season and his EPA dropped to 0.09 after a 0.15 rate in both 2019 and ’20. You know who might help those rates? The newly acquired Davante Adams at wideout.
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The Chargers’ Justin Herbert ranked No. 1 in “Total Points Added” in 2021 with 184. That’s the highest single-season total of any quarterback in the league from 2016 to ’21. Herbert even pulled off that number despite 15 interceptions. That’s also why Herbert’s IQR ranked fifth last season behind Rodgers, Burrow, Jameis Winston (!) and Brady. Given the Chargers’ defensive additions (Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson), Los Angeles should have another Super Bowl contender with Herbert under center.
Not too long ago, the narrative around Mahomes pointed to his struggles in trying to do too much. Still, Mahomes ranked second in EPA in 2021 at 0.17, behind only Rodgers. Mahomes’ IQR (102.7) ranked him 10th in the league last season, which was atypical for him. It was easily the lowest IQR of Mahomes’ career as a starter: 121.9 in 2018, 112.1 in 2019, 115.7 in 2020. Obviously Mahomes is an elite quarterback, but where will these numbers go without Tyreek Hill in 2022?
We can all agree Wilson will be an upgrade over Bridgewater and Drew Lock in Denver. Yet Wilson’s 105.4 IQR from last season was his lowest since 2016. Also, Wilson’s EPA rates the last four seasons were: 0.21 in 2018, 0.12 in 2019, 0.13 in 2020, then 0.03 in 2021. The broken finger on his right (throwing) hand likely played a role in his 2021 decline, but an argument can be made that Wilson’s play the last season and a half has simply dropped in general. This trade for the Broncos could be riskier than you might have thought.
NFC East
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.04 (37) | 94.1 (2021) | 94.1 | |
-0.03 (55) | 90.1 (2019) | 88.6 | |
0.14 (12) | 111.3 (2016) | 105.1 | |
0.04 (38) | 106.6 (2017) | 97.9 |
Jalen Hurts makes enough plays to make the Eagles think he could be their future at quarterback. Yet his IQR last season placed him 18th, among the likes of Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Bridgewater and Jackson. Now is that what Philadelphia is looking for in a passer? The IQR doesn’t take into account Hurts’ rushing ability, as he tallied 784 rushing yards and 10 TDs. But even with Hurts’ overall game, he amassed only a 0.03 EPA, again lurking around Wentz and Jackson at 19th.
Three years as a starter and your EPA is a negative number? Now that’s something. But that’s Daniel Jones at this point. His rookie season was the only year without a negative rate, and that was a 0.00 in 2019. Jones has basically been the same passer the past three seasons in IQR terms: 90.1 in 2019, 83.3 in 2020 and 88.6 in 2021. New Giants coach Brian Daboll helped develop Allen into a monster in Buffalo, and team owner John Mara continues pushing the blame off Jones, but something has to give at some point.
Quarterback play should make the Cowboys the favorite in this division for the foreseeable future. Dak Prescott’s biggest season occurred in 2019 (0.21 EPA), but he has been at 0.13 in each of the past two seasons and his 2021 EPA rate ranked 10th in the league. Prescott’s 105.1 IQR was the second-highest rate of his career, up significantly from 94.1 in 2020 before his injury. That’s plenty good enough to win the NFC East. Is it enough to push the Cowboys any further?
Commanders
The Carson Wentz experience has moved to Washington. His numbers with the Colts last season might not scream “nightmare,” but the dream certainly went south quickly, culminating in a Week 18 collapse. Wentz’s 0.04 EPA ranked 18th in 2021. His 97.9 IQR from last season was Wentz’s best in his last three years, but it feels like I’m grasping at straws. The Commanders missed out on Russell Wilson, whose 105.4 IQR in 2021 was his worst since 2016. But Wentz would go bananas for a 105.4 IQR in any season (106.6 was Wentz’s highest in 2017).
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NFC North
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.13 (15) | 116.7 (2019) | 106.1 | |
-0.15 (70) | 74.3 (2021) | 74.3 | |
0.08 (26) | 109.9 (2017) | 94.3 | |
0.20 (3) | 127.7 (2020) | 115.3 |
Cousins produced his worst IQR in his past three seasons with a 106.1 rate last season; he had a 116.7 TQR in 2019 and 111.1 TQR in 2020. “Worst” is a relative term, though, considering Cousins’ 2021 rate still ranked sixth in the league. The same goes for Cousins’ EPA the past three seasons: 0.22 in 2019, 0.19 in 2020, 0.11 in 2021. Cousins and Prescott share a similar storyline. Both can produce, but how far can each take their respective teams?
Speaking of storylines, Justin Fields heads into 2022 with a similar storyline as his 2021 NFL Draft classmate Zach Wilson. There was so much on the negative side for both rookies that you wonder how much either will improve in Year 2. Neither Fields nor Zach Wilson produced a traditional 100-plus QB rating in any if their starts last season, though at least Fields was a little better than Zach Wilson in IQR and EPA.
The Lions seem content to roll with Jared Goff for the 2022 season. In terms of EPA, Goff hasn’t exactly been trending upward in the past four years: 0.21 in 2018, 0.10 in 2019, minus-0.01 in 2020, minus-0.02 in 2021. His IQRs the past three seasons indicate Goff “is who he is,” and that’s mediocre at best: 90.3 in 2019, 94.6 in 2020, 94.3 in 2021. Drafting a quarterback in Day 1 or 2 this year would make a lot of sense to me for Detroit. I’m not sure head coach Dan Campbell feels the same way.
Rodgers led the NFL in EPA at 0.22 and IQR at 115.3. He also led the league in both categories in 2020, but with much higher rates: 0.33 EPA, 127.7 IQR. Obviously leading the league in these stats is significant, and I’m nitpicking great play from Rodgers. You have to wonder, though, how much losing Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will affect Rodgers and the Packers’ offense.
NFC South
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.15 (10) | 125.6 (2016) | 108.8 | |
-0.08 (63) | 95.2 (2019) | 80 | |
0.08 (25) | 105.8 (2016) | 102.6 (2019) | |
0.14 (13) | 112.3 (2021) | 112.3 |
Buccaneers
Trying to map out trends for Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask would’ve been quite the challenge. For this study, I’m lucky Brady decided to return. Brady’s 0.14 EPA ranked seventh among quarterbacks in 2021, though it’s a slight dip from the 0.20 EPA mark he posted in 2020. Meanwhile, Brady’s 108.8 IQR ranked fourth in the league in 2021, but it’s also down from his 114.2 IQR in 2020, which was the second-best IQR in the last four seasons. It’s still pretty clear that Brady stands with Rodgers as the top quarterbacks in the NFC.
Is it even worth diving into Sam Darnold’s numbers since the Panthers have given every indication they’d like to move on from him? Might as well. Darnold’s minus-0.15 EPA ranked 40th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks in 2021. The Darnold stat I found so fascinating was his “catchable” pass rate last year, as he ranked third in the league in that stat at 87.8 percent. And yet his IQR was only 80.0. A TD-INT margin (9 TDs, 13 interceptions) certainly doomed the IQR. Draft options Willis, Pickett and Corral should all be in play for Carolina as well.
How can we evaluate Marcus Mariota given his last start occurred Oct. 13, 2019? Talk about a whirlwind of quarterback hopes and dreams in Atlanta. Three of Mariota’s last four seasons as a starter resulted in a 102.6 IQR or higher, which sounds uplifting, but his EPA went from 0.08 in 2018 to minus-0.01 in 2019. The Falcons can spin it however they want — there’s no way anyone in the organization can be truly convinced Mariota is the long-term answer. Hell, he might not even start this season if the team drafts a quarterback.
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So many of Winston’s numbers during his seven starts last season trend upward. He ranked third in the NFL in IQR at 112.3, behind only Rodgers and Burrow, and he ranked sixth with a 0.15 EPA. Both of those figures ranked one spot ahead of Brady’s numbers. Winston also amassed the third-best TD per attempt rate (8.7 percent) in 2021 of any passer in the past four seasons. Then there are the nerve-racking 2021 percentages: completion (59.0, 36 of 42), “on-target” (70.1, 37 of 42), “catchable” (80.6, 38 of 42). The Saints have added Andy Dalton to the roster, but the starting job is clearly Winston’s to lose.
NFC West
| player | OffEPA/Play | Top IQR | 2021 IQR |
|---|---|---|---|
0.16 (8) | 102.7 (2019) | 98.2 | |
-0.00 (46) | 96.7 (2019) | 73.6 | |
0.07 (27) | 105.6 (2021) | 105.6 | |
0.15 (9) | 111.0 (2019) | 102.3 |
49ers
You’d think any team would love to have a quarterback with a 0.16 EPA mark from the past four seasons, yet Jimmy Garoppolo’s path still seems lost. His 0.14 EPA rate from 2021 ranked ninth in the league, ahead of those from Prescott, Cousins and Allen. Garoppolo’s EPA ranged from good to very good the past four seasons: 0.13 in 2018, 0.19 in 2019, 0.14 in 2020, 0.14 in 2021. But Garoppolo has produced just one season with an IQR above 100. That’s probably why Trey Lance is on the roster …
Drew Lock is another quarterback in which his current team can’t seriously believe he’s the future of the franchise. Lock’s IQR has dropped steadily through his first three seasons: 96.7 in 2019, 87.0 in 2020, 73.6 in 2021 (ranked 38th of 42). Lock’s 2021 EPA climbed to minus-0.02, up from minus-0.06 in 2020. There’s really no good way to spin these numbers in the Seahawks’ favor.
Kyler Murray’s EPA has improved a bit every season: 0.05 in 2019, 0.07 in 2020, 0.10 in 2021 (13th overall last season). Meanwhile, Colt McCoy’s EPA in 2021 was 0.15, fifth-best overall. Murray ranked seventh in IQR in 2021 at 105.6. This, too, has improved every season: 94.8 in 2019 and 99.0 in 2020. The Cardinals’ starter also rushed the ball 45 fewer times in 2021 and watched his passing rates improve, including an 82.2 percent “on-target” rate (second overall).
Rams
Forget any of the numbers — Stafford will live in Rams royalty. That said, the numbers were pretty good in 2021. Stafford’s 0.17 EPA ranked third in 2021 behind only Rodgers and Mahomes. But Stafford did throw 17 interceptions last season, which pushed his 2021 IQR down to 102.3, his lowest in the last three seasons. The Rams are in great shape with Stafford, though.
(Photo of Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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